Imagine you’re back in high school.
You wrote an assignment a week earlier, and you’re nervously awaiting your final grade.
Your teacher returns your paper, and that’s when you see your grade for the first time:
“Nice work. B.”
“Damn,” you mutter aloud, comparing yourself to your straight-A friend, “I was so close to getting an A.”
Now imagine what it’s like for your friend who gets a C-grade.
Had he not proofread his work and added another source, he almost certainly would have failed the assignment.
In his book, The Power of Regret, Dan Pink calls people like your friend “downward counterfactuals,” or At Leasts. [1]
Your friend compares down by contemplating how the alternative could have been worse. [2]
“I got a C+,” your friend comments, “but at least I passed, and I don’t have to rewrite the assignment again.”
In our hypothetical scenario, you would be an “upward counterfactual” or an If Only.
Rather than comparing down, you instead imagine how things could have gone better.
“If only I’d attended class more often and done all the reading,” you comment to your friend. ”Then I’d have gotten a much better grade.”
“At Leasts deliver comfort and consolation,” writes Pink. “If Onlys deliver discomfort and distress.” [2]
At Least vs. If Only
It’s crucial to mention If Onlys aren’t bad.
Comparing up in the proper context can enhance our decisions and performance and help us improve in the long run.
“[Regret’s] very purpose is to make us feel worse,” writes Pink. “Because by making us feel worse today, regret helps us do better tomorrow.”
In reality, though, most people tend to err on the side of one way of counterfactual thinking and not the other:
- The optimist compares down (At Least) and feels better in the moment but doesn’t take time to reflect.
- The pessimist compares up (If Only) and feels better later, but only if they take the time to reflect.
A good rule of thumb is to take the middle ground: compare down in the moment and compare up later when enough time passes.
Wishing you had studied harder or resolved a conflict better can wound you in the moment.
But upon reflection, removed from the stab of disappointment, regret can give rise to asking better, quality questions like “How can I improve next time?”
Think like a C-student, indeed, and bask in At Least thinking, especially in the heat of regret. But don’t dwell there too long. The real learning comes later.
Footnotes
[1] I want to acknowledge Dan Pink for introducing me to counterfactual thinking. I read a few articles as part of my research urging to “think like a Bronze medalist,” but everything I read ignored the value of If Only thinking.
[2] Comparing down is similar to measuring backward, an idea Benjamin Hardy talks about in his book, The Gap and The Gain.
[3] You could argue that A-students can fall into a thinking trap of their own: “So, what now?” As American novelist Harper Lee said, “When you’re at the top, there’s only one way to go.”
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