In their book Decisive, Chip and Dan Heath offer a framework for making better decisions called The WRAP Process. “To make better choices,” write the brothers, “we must avoid the most common decision-making biases.”
While awareness of biases and irrationalities isn’t sufficient to avoid them, we can use The WRAP process to help us make better, bolder decisions. The WRAP process is an acronym that stands for:
- Widen your options
- Reality-test your assumptions
- Attain distance before deciding; and
- Prepare to be wrong
Let’s look at each in turn.
The WRAP Process
Widen Your Options
Chip and Dan Heath warn against the pitfalls of narrow framing, which can cause us to miss out on options.
Instead of sticking to binary “whether or not” decisions, as many people do, we must expand our perspective. The Heaths advise embracing an “AND” mindset rather than “OR.”
To discover fresh options when making decisions, look for those who have tackled similar problems. For instance, we can employ the “laddering” technique, which involves:
- Beginning by identifying current successes (local);
- Moving to recognized best practices (regional); and
- Drawing from analogous scenarios in other areas (distant).
Reality-Test Your Assumptions
The Heaths delve into the dangers of confirmation bias, which can make us favor information that supports our pre-existing beliefs.
To challenge this bias, the authors suggest asking questions that go against our assumptions, like pinpointing the flaws in a popular product.
They advocate for a dual approach: “zoom out” to get a broad perspective using base rates and “zoom in” for a detailed view.
Importantly, they introduce the concept of “ooching” — running small tests to gain direct insights. As the Heaths put it, why rely on predictions when direct knowledge is accessible?
Attain Distance Before Deciding
The “A” in The Wrap Process involves addressing the challenge of short-term emotions influencing our decisions, often to our long-term detriment.
To counteract this, the Heaths recommend gaining distance to view choices more objectively. Techniques include considering the advice you would give a close friend or pondering the actions of a successor.
The 10/10/10 Method is another useful tool (which I covered in Issue #002), prompting reflection on the implications of a decision in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years.
When faced with particularly tough choices, it’s crucial to discern our fundamental values and then ardently pursue them, illustrated by the tale of the stainless steel bolts on a Navy ship.
Prepare to Be Wrong
We must caution ourselves against overconfidence, which can blind us to the unpredictability of the future. To avoid the trap of such bias, the Heaths advocate for proactive planning for potential failures (premortem) and successes (prepared).
The Heaths suggest implementing tripwires or alert mechanisms to prevent complacency and ensure timely re-evaluation. For example, David Lee Roth’s brown M&M clause and Zappos’ $1,000 offer serve as distinctive tripwires, prompting immediate attention when triggered.
Conclusion
Overall, Decisive offers valuable insights into decision-making.
By widening our options, reality-testing our assumptions, attaining distance before deciding, and preparing to be wrong, we can make better decisions that lead to positive outcomes.
Remember to challenge your biases, seek new information, and prepare for the unpredictable future.
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