In their book, The Imperfectionists: Strategic Mindsets for Uncertain Times, Charles R. Conn and Robert McLean delve into what sets exceptional problem solvers apart.
To do that, they outline six interconnected strategies that drive the problem-solving abilities of top leaders, offering guidance for navigating uncertainty successfully.
Let’s look at each in turn.
The Six Mindsets for Solving Problems Under Uncertainty
- 1. Ever Curious
- 2. Dragonfly Eye
- 3. Occurent Behavior
- 4. Collective Intelligence
- 5. Imperfectionist
- 6. Show and Tell
1. Ever Curious
Conn and McLean emphasize how our curiosity evolves as we grow older. Young children naturally ask, “Why?” as they learn about the world. But as we age and become more certain of our knowledge, we tend to lose that curiosity. The authors explain that while recognizing patterns is helpful in stable situations, it can hinder problem-solving in uncertain circumstances.
They illustrate this with the story of Charles and his startup, Citysearch, which challenged traditional newspapers but failed to adapt to the changing landscape of online content creation and classified advertising, which led to its decline.
Curiosity is vital for effective problem-solving in times of uncertainty, and maintaining curiosity, rather than seeking rigid certainty, is essential for navigating rapid change successfully.
2. Dragonfly Eye
Our pattern-seeking brains evolved to quickly identify dangers in a simpler world. However, with the complex and diverse technological landscape of today, Conn and McLean propose adopting a “dragonfly eye” mindset.
Like a dragonfly’s compound eyes, this approach involves examining problems from various angles. After all, great problem solvers don’t just rely on one perspective but test multiple lenses to understand the real issue.
Take John Foley’s success with Peloton as an example. While traditional home gym companies focused on replicating outdoor exercise indoors, Foley reimagined it as a social experience, leading to a groundbreaking business.
Conn and McLean also discuss their exploration of the obesity crisis, where multiple perspectives revealed social determinants as major contributors. By altering lenses, we can uncover fresh insights and identify opportunities or threats beyond our usual perception.
3. Occurent Behavior
In this section, Conn and McLean introduce the concept of “occurrent behavior”—observing actual events as they unfold rather than relying solely on predictions or desired outcomes. They emphasize the importance of moving beyond historical data by conducting experiments or seeking natural experiments to gain new insights.
While direct experimentation is easier in the digital realm, it’s valuable in physical markets, too, as sometimes ethical concerns prevent controlled testing, leading to the search for natural experiments.
The authors link this mindset to Thomas Bayes’ insights, describing it as a commitment to continuous trial and error and using new information to update understanding. This mindset is often scarce due to the fear of appearing foolish by altering strategies.
4. Collective Intelligence
In Chapter 4, Conn and McLean discuss the concept of harnessing collective intelligence. They start by referring to Bill Joy, a co-founder of Sun Microsystems, who advocated for bringing the smartest minds together to tackle problems.
The authors argue that in today’s rapidly changing industries, relying solely on internal expertise is insufficient and challenges the traditional expert consulting model, which works in stable sectors.
However, in the face of disruptive technological changes, organizations should broaden their scope and involve individuals with diverse skills and perspectives, even from outside their industry.
The collective intelligence mindset, akin to the dragonfly eye mindset, encourages seeking innovative solutions from varied sources beyond the organization.
5. Imperfectionist
In Chapter 5, Conn and McLean shift the perspective on problem-solving from the image of a brilliant engineer to that of an imperfectionist strategist. They highlight the reality that effective problem-solving in uncertain situations is more like navigating the dynamic flow of a rugby game than following a linear plan.
Drawing from examples like Amazon’s entry into consumer financial services and Johnson & Johnson’s approach to entering the contact lens market, the authors explain that savvy problem solvers focus on understanding industry dynamics and gradually building capabilities through small strategic moves.
They introduce the concept of a “growth staircase” or horizon, a framework for planning strategic steps while managing risks and avoiding large, high-stakes acquisitions. Imperfectionists acknowledge that some moves may fail, but they prioritize learning from experiments with reasonable costs and reversible consequences.
These problem solvers are comfortable with uncertainty, embracing trial and error while gathering diverse perspectives and data from the other five mindsets discussed in the book.
6. Show and Tell
The “show and tell” mindset is a powerful approach to problem-solving. Conn and McLean relate it to the elementary school activity where individuals present and explain something to an audience. And while not traditionally thought of as a problem-solving technique, it’s a vital aspect of creative thinking.
Today’s information overload and data manipulation have led to confusion and cynicism. Rookie problem solvers might resort to showcasing their analytical processes, while seasoned ones, as Herb Simon noted, make solutions transparent.
They stress that great problem solvers are adept storytellers who convey findings through clear actions and visually presented logic. Recognizing that humans are visual learners, they use visual aids to make the path to solutions tangible, understandable, and engaging.
Conn and McLean underline the importance of emotionally connecting with the audience’s values and showing how their proposed actions strike a balance between risks and rewards. Ultimately, framing matters more than just presenting facts.
Conclusion
In summary, the six mindsets for solving problems under uncertainty are a valuable guide for anyone facing complex challenges in today’s rapidly changing world.
By adopting these mindsets, we can embrace uncertainty, think more creatively and collaboratively, and find innovative solutions.
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