Words Into Works #122 | The Lindy Effect

Imagine you’re in a bustling city, observing the world around you. As you walk down a street lined with shops, restaurants, and people going about their day, you might notice that some places seem timeless. The bookstore on the corner has been there for decades, while the trendy café down the block is new and full of excitement, but you’re not sure how long it will last.

The Lindy Effect helps explain why some things, like that old bookstore, endure over time while others fade away. Originally coined by Albert Goldman to describe the lifespan of Broadway shows, Nassim Nicholas Taleb expanded this idea in his book Antifragile to apply more broadly to non-perishable entities, such as ideas, technologies, and cultural practices.

The Lindy Effect suggests that the longer something has existed, the more likely it is to continue existing in the future. In other words, if an idea or practice has been around for centuries, it’s likely because it has a resilience that newer concepts might lack.

This doesn’t mean that new ideas aren’t valuable—far from it—but it does suggest that there’s something to be said for the staying power of things that have withstood the test of time.

Big Idea 1: Longevity as a Predictor of Future Life

One of the most intriguing aspects of the Lindy Effect is its counterintuitive nature. In many areas of life, we assume that newness equates to improvement. New technology is often seen as superior, and the latest trends are more relevant. However, the Lindy Effect challenges this assumption by proposing that longevity can be a more reliable predictor of future survival than novelty.

Think about it this way: if a book has been in print for 50 years, it’s likely to remain in print for another 50 years. The same can’t be said for a book published just last year. The reason behind this is simple—time acts as a filter. Only those things that are truly valuable, adaptable, or robust tend to survive over long periods.

This concept applies not just to books but to practices, technologies, and even business models. Consider the wheel, one of the oldest technologies in human history. Its basic design has remained unchanged for millennia, and for good reason—it works. The Lindy Effect suggests that the longer a technology has been in use, the more likely it is to continue being useful.

Key Takeaway: When assessing the potential longevity of an idea, technology, or practice, consider its historical durability. The longer it has lasted, the more likely it is to continue to do so.

Big Idea 2: The Antifragility of Enduring Ideas

In one chapter, Taleb introduces the concept of antifragility, which refers to things that gain from disorder or stress. The Lindy Effect ties into this by suggesting that things that survive over long periods are not just resilient—they may actually thrive on challenges and changes. Enduring ideas or practices often become more robust as they navigate through various challenges.

Take Stoicism, for example. This ancient philosophy has been around for over two thousand years, and despite—or perhaps because of—the numerous social and cultural changes it has encountered, it remains relevant today. The core principles of Stoicism have been tested and refined over centuries, making the philosophy robust and adaptable to different contexts.

Similarly, the Lindy Effect can be seen in business. Companies that have been around for decades or even centuries have often weathered economic downturns, technological disruptions, and shifts in consumer behavior. These businesses aren’t just surviving—they’ve adapted to changes and often emerged stronger.

Key Takeaway: Embrace practices, ideas, or strategies that have demonstrated antifragility. These are likely to survive and thrive in the face of future challenges.

Big Idea 3: Applying the Lindy Effect in Your Life

Understanding the Lindy Effect can help you make better decisions in both your personal and professional life. By recognizing the value of longevity, you can prioritize habits, strategies, and knowledge that have proven their worth over time.

Here’s how you can apply the Lindy Effect:

1. Prioritize Time-Tested Knowledge: When learning something new, give weight to sources that have stood the test of time. Classical literature, long-standing philosophies, and traditional practices often contain wisdom that newer works may lack.
2. Adopt Durable Habits: Focus on habits that have long-term benefits in your daily life. For example, regular exercise, reading nonfiction books, and maintaining a balanced diet have been valued for centuries and are likely to continue providing benefits.
3. Invest in Timeless Relationships: Relationships that have endured over time are often the most resilient and rewarding. Nurture friendships and professional connections that have proven durable rather than constantly seeking new ones.
4. Choose Enduring Strategies: Consider strategies that have demonstrated staying power in business and personal finance. For instance, diversifying investments has been a staple of financial planning for generations and continues to be a sound approach.
5. Reflect on Your Own Lindy: Consider what aspects of your life—whether ideas, practices, or relationships—have demonstrated longevity. Reflect on why they have lasted and how you can continue cultivating them.

Key Takeaway: Use the Lindy Effect to evaluate the long-term viability of your decisions. By focusing on what has proven its worth over time, you can build a more resilient and enduring foundation for your future.

Conclusion

The Lindy Effect offers a powerful perspective on the value of time-tested ideas, practices, and technologies. By recognizing that longevity can predict future success, you can make more informed decisions in your personal and professional life.

Whether you’re choosing a new habit to adopt, evaluating a business strategy, or simply reflecting on the wisdom of the past, the Lindy Effect reminds us that what endures often does so for a reason.

So, the next time you choose between the new and the old, remember to consider the Lindy Effect. Sometimes, the best path forward is the one that has already been walked by many before you.